A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
